I don't think Trump will win.  I really don't.  I think polling in the US is way out of wack for some reason and I think a lot of that has to do with a polling industry that has data collection methodology issues that have not been figured out yet.  I mean, come on, young black males trending toward Trump and the Republican Party? Oh, fucking horseshit.  Not only  that, I believe young people and those that have migrated away from landlines have also influenced polling date misrepresentations.  The proper weighting of data collection results also seems out of wack as well. 

I mean, here's the thing - not to be overly cynical, but polling is a business and those conducting these polls know the way to keep the cash coming is to have polls that garner attention and a bevy of polls showing Biden up by ten points is not as eye-catching as a neck and neck race (I'm not suggesting all pollsters purposely shade their data, but I am suggesting that polling firms just might not be in too big of a hurry to correct data collection methodology flaws if polls are rolling in the dough).

But the phenomenon in the US I speak of is this bizarre evolution of hate and miserability that just keeps growing.

I believe there are plenty of influencing things behind it, one of them being the explosion of the use of social media.  What is bizarre about this is that with the so-called focus and rise of "cancelation" in the US, it would seem to me that this threat of cancellation would curtail the venom or highly offensive harmful posts that is spread through social media but instead it has become like a wildfire and has only been amplified.  And it seems this venom and hate spreading machine has only influenced people to grow in their hate, anger and venom and especially in ways that these hate mongers feel it is permissible to ramp up the hate and express anything that they feel (I think this is one of the most harmful things that MAGA has done to the US - it has created an environment where those that wrongly feel aggrieved have the right to utter anything he or she feels, regardless of how racist, sexist, homophobic, traitorous or otherwise offensive those beliefs are and at will).

Still, I just don't get this American hate very well.  And even though I know that perceptions of things like a good economy are delayed, I don't understand things like how back under Trump, when like the DOW hit 36k, almost every publication I read that deals with society and politics, including watching news broadcasts, were excitedly anticipating a 40k DOW and bragging about it.  And now that the DOW really is heading toward 40k and closer than ever before, I have yet to read or watch one thing gleefully anticipating a 40k DOW. 

It's like this complaint of how no workers are willing to work, but unemployment is low, as well as joblessness claims (now, my thoughts on this are more aligned with the reason workers are hard to find is that maybe so many of these workers are only willing to work two jobs instead of three and four, but this aspect is never addressed).

The good news is that the good news of an improving economy is starting to resonate with the American people and forecasters are optimistic for a good economy in 2024, so that bodes well for Biden. 

But still, I just don't get this American hate and rage (but I guess a lot of that is fear of the white MAGA crowd losing their standing in American society).