Icon What the polls and the voting show is there are some major warning signs...
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Reg (view)

Here is what needs to be considered:

1. The actual voting. Basically, the voting shows a very specific thing...all this support of Sanders and Trump proves beyond any doubt the majority of THE PEOPLE have had it with their government. This support has held up and is quite strong despite the fact that both parties (and the media) shoved their establishment candidates down their voters throats. Trump thrashed his Republican competition despite the fact that the RNC openly tried to run him out of the race. Sanders support has grown despite the DNC and the media doing all they can to make him look like a joke. Sanders is going to continue to win states right into the DNC convention.

2. The polls at this stage are valid. I don't care much about polls but what the polls show is that they are in line with the actual voting that is taking place. The public truly dislikes the "establishment" right now and nobody is more an establishment candidate than Hillary Clinton. Nobody wants to pay attention to the polls because they don't like what they are saying...but what you can take out of them is they tell us the same thing the actual voting told us...people want to vote the establishment out...on both sides of the aisle.

3. What has driven people to the voting booths this cycle has been the chance to VOTE AGAINST the establishment candidates. Why would this change in the general election? Can anybody point to a reason why it would? No, they can't. All of the excitement for voters has been the anti-establishment candidates Sanders and Trump. This is not a good sign for establishment Hillary.

4. Momentum. Right now, Trump has it and can build right through the convention. His competition is gone. Hillary is still fighting off Bernie and Bernie is going to defeat her in probably the majority of the states left to vote. She is a weak candidate that will limp into the DNC convention on a losing streak...with Bernie there challenging Democrats to support him and his ideas. Bernie has been the fire and excitement for Democrat voters this year, he has inspired them and brought them out to the polls and continues to do so. If Clinton is the candidate all of that fire goes out and many millions of voters will not turn up to vote in the general. This works in Trump's favor...particularly in states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania where he has strong support. Hillary is not in the same position that Obama was where he had a growing wave of support and enthusiasm behind him and the party was thrilled to unite behind him. Quite the opposite here, Hillary disappoints voters and splits the party and they do not want to unite behind her. The actual voting proves this as Bernie is the one that has been gaining momentum and will head into the convention on a winning streak.

5. Fear will be the Clinton campaign's primary motivator. They will work in conjunction with the media to build fear of a Donald Trump presidency. They will attempt to portray him the same way Republicans did as a conman, reckless, an egomaniac, a racist, a bigot, sexist, morally bankrupt and a liar. This strategy failed miserably when Republicans tried to sell it to supposed "values voters" and it likely will be an even bigger bomb when Hillary tries it...because people already see her as a reckless liar, egomaniac conwoman, that has used and abused voters of all colors, and that says anything to anybody just to get elected. So, her attacks on Trump are likely to fall pretty flat. She offers voters establishment politics, corporate kowtowing, hawkish and dangerous foreign policy, and perhaps some somewhat liberal Supreme Court judges. Um, not exactly an attractive package and when you combine this with the fact she is prone to making major blunders and is more weirdly secretive and paranoid than Richard Nixon...well...I don't see anybody getting excited about voting for her. I see that it is more likely that people will be excited to vote against her or not vote at all. Fear is something the American public is tired of, combine this with the fact they are tired of the establishment and during the general election Trump could suddenly be seen as a breath of fresh air to voters. He could actually be seen as the positive candidate running on making the country great. Ridiculous? Sure, but if he convinces Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania voters of this...look out.

6. She has struggled mightily against Sanders, who handled her with kid gloves and ran on issues rather than going at her weak spots and openly eliminated her email issue from being part of the primary process. Basically, she faced a cream puff who was nice to her because he did not want to risk the Democrats losing the election. Sanders as mentioned above will continue beating her in the remaining primaries. In Trump she will face a candidate that will brutalize her and bludgeon her with every weak spot she has...and there are a lot of them...which will force the media to pay attention to and discuss these issues finally. It will be ugly and she is already a candidate that the majority of the public does not trust so it will not be a hard sell for Trump to build on that idea. The Clintons are very good at playing dirty (hell, they portrayed Obama in a turban when they ran against him in the primaries) but they have never traded body blows with somebody like Trump. He'll have everybody thinking of her as "Crooked Hillary" in no time...and it works in his favor that the nickname is accurate.

7. Oh yeah, and there is only one candidate under investigation by the FBI. An investigation that is coming to a head at the same time the conventions are about to take place. While everybody on the Democrat side wants to downplay this...well...the director of the FBI is not.

These days lawyers prefer to settle cases so they never have to go in front of a jury. A jury is a wild card and so you don't know what may come out in a trial that sways them one way or another. Well, Trump versus Clinton will go to a jury trial and so far all the voting indicates that jury, THE PEOPLE, seems very unfavorable to establishment politicians.

Clinton can cling to the idea that she built a lead in the popular vote but that came from wins in Southern states and where Bernie was an unknown or thought to have been sent to us by the Kremlin...these are places Hillary will lose in the general because they are Red States so in the general election that "lead" she talks about is utter bullshit. Anybody that understands the difference between primary voting and general election voting knows this.

The truth is this election is likely to be a brutal slugfest and the better puncher is Trump. If we do end up with President Trump I will blame the media for giving him such a tremendous platform and the DNC for the pure arrogance and stupidity of shoving a lousy and weak candidate down our throats.

If you don't think it can happen...well...you are wrong. I lived through it right here in super liberal Massachusetts. We sent Scott Brown to the Senate because the arrogant and stupid Democrats thought they could win with anybody on their ticket and so ran a weak candidate in Martha Coakley. Brown destroyed her in the debates and the Democrats enraged the voters by being so tone deaf and arrogant so...result Brown goes to the Senate. Trump versus Clinton stacks up the same way. You have an electorate that is sick of being ignored, shoved around, and crapped on and a weak establishment candidate that much of the base does not like running against a guy that is obviously a bozo but whose message may resonate more with voters.

–--
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
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