Reg
location: back to the wilderness
listening to: static
registered: 1999.11.22
posts: 6470
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Here is what needs to be considered:
1. The actual voting. Basically, the voting shows a very specific
thing...all this support of Sanders and Trump proves beyond any doubt the
majority of THE PEOPLE have had it with their government. This support
has held up and is quite strong despite the fact that both parties (and
the media) shoved their establishment candidates down their voters
throats. Trump thrashed his Republican competition despite the fact that
the RNC openly tried to run him out of the race. Sanders support has
grown despite the DNC and the media doing all they can to make him look
like a joke. Sanders is going to continue to win states right into the
DNC convention.
2. The polls at this stage are valid. I don't care much about polls
but
what the polls show is that they are in line with the actual voting that
is taking place. The public truly dislikes the "establishment" right now
and nobody is more an establishment candidate than Hillary Clinton.
Nobody wants to pay attention to the polls because they don't like what
they are saying...but what you can take out of them is they tell us the
same thing the actual voting told us...people want to vote the
establishment out...on both sides of the aisle.
3. What has driven people to the voting booths this cycle has been
the
chance to VOTE AGAINST the establishment candidates. Why would this
change in the general election? Can anybody point to a reason why it
would? No, they can't. All of the excitement for voters has been the
anti-establishment candidates Sanders and Trump. This is not a good sign
for establishment Hillary.
4. Momentum. Right now, Trump has it and can build right through the
convention. His competition is gone. Hillary is still fighting off Bernie
and Bernie is going to defeat her in probably the majority of the states
left to vote. She is a weak candidate that will limp into the DNC
convention on a losing streak...with Bernie there challenging Democrats
to support him and his ideas. Bernie has been the fire and excitement for
Democrat voters this year, he has inspired them and brought them out to
the polls and continues to do so. If Clinton is the candidate all of that
fire goes out and many millions of voters will not turn up to vote in the
general. This works in Trump's favor...particularly in states like
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania where he has strong support. Hillary is
not in the same position that Obama was where he had a growing wave of
support and enthusiasm behind him and the party was thrilled to unite
behind him. Quite the opposite here, Hillary disappoints voters and
splits the party and they do not want to unite behind her. The actual
voting proves this as Bernie is the one that has been gaining momentum
and will head into the convention on a winning streak.
5. Fear will be the Clinton campaign's primary motivator. They will
work
in conjunction with the media to build fear of a Donald Trump presidency.
They will attempt to portray him the same way Republicans did as a
conman, reckless, an egomaniac, a racist, a bigot, sexist, morally
bankrupt and a liar. This strategy failed miserably when Republicans
tried to sell it to supposed "values voters" and it likely will be an
even bigger bomb when Hillary tries it...because people already see her
as a reckless liar, egomaniac conwoman, that has used and abused voters
of all colors, and that says anything to anybody just to get elected. So,
her attacks on Trump are likely to fall pretty flat. She offers voters
establishment politics, corporate kowtowing, hawkish and dangerous
foreign policy, and perhaps some somewhat liberal Supreme Court judges.
Um, not exactly an attractive package and when you combine this with the
fact she is prone to making major blunders and is more weirdly secretive
and paranoid than Richard Nixon...well...I don't see anybody getting
excited about voting for her. I see that it is more likely that people
will be excited to vote against her or not vote at all. Fear is something
the American public is tired of, combine this with the fact they are
tired of the establishment and during the general election Trump could
suddenly be seen as a breath of fresh air to voters. He could actually be
seen as the positive candidate running on making the country great.
Ridiculous? Sure, but if he convinces Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
voters of this...look out.
6. She has struggled mightily against Sanders, who handled her with
kid
gloves and ran on issues rather than going at her weak spots and openly
eliminated her email issue from being part of the primary process.
Basically, she faced a cream puff who was nice to her because he did not
want to risk the Democrats losing the election. Sanders as mentioned
above will continue beating her in the remaining primaries. In Trump she
will face a candidate that will brutalize her and bludgeon her with every
weak spot she has...and there are a lot of them...which will force the
media to pay attention to and discuss these issues finally. It will be
ugly and she is already a candidate that the majority of the public does
not trust so it will not be a hard sell for Trump to build on that idea.
The Clintons are very good at playing dirty (hell, they portrayed Obama
in a turban when they ran against him in the primaries) but they have
never traded body blows with somebody like Trump. He'll have everybody
thinking of her as "Crooked Hillary" in no time...and it works in his
favor that the nickname is accurate.
7. Oh yeah, and there is only one candidate under investigation by
the
FBI. An investigation that is coming to a head at the same time the
conventions are about to take place. While everybody on the Democrat side
wants to downplay this...well...the director of the FBI is not.
These days lawyers prefer to settle cases so they never have to go in
front of a jury. A jury is a wild card and so you don't know what may
come out in a trial that sways them one way or another. Well, Trump
versus Clinton will go to a jury trial and so far all the voting
indicates that jury, THE PEOPLE, seems very unfavorable to establishment
politicians.
Clinton can cling to the idea that she built a lead in the popular
vote
but that came from wins in Southern states and where Bernie was an
unknown or thought to have been sent to us by the Kremlin...these are
places Hillary will lose in the general because they are Red States so in
the general election that "lead" she talks about is utter bullshit.
Anybody that understands the difference between primary voting and
general election voting knows this.
The truth is this election is likely to be a brutal slugfest and the
better puncher is Trump. If we do end up with President Trump I will
blame the media for giving him such a tremendous platform and the DNC for
the pure arrogance and stupidity of shoving a lousy and weak candidate
down our throats.
If you don't think it can happen...well...you are wrong. I lived
through
it right here in super liberal Massachusetts. We sent Scott Brown to the
Senate because the arrogant and stupid Democrats thought they could win
with anybody on their ticket and so ran a weak candidate in Martha
Coakley. Brown destroyed her in the debates and the Democrats enraged the
voters by being so tone deaf and arrogant so...result Brown goes to the
Senate. Trump versus Clinton stacks up the same way. You have an
electorate that is sick of being ignored, shoved around, and crapped on
and a weak establishment candidate that much of the base does not like
running against a guy that is obviously a bozo but whose message may
resonate more with voters.
–--
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
Reg
(view)
Here is what needs to be considered:
1. The actual voting. Basically, the voting shows a very specific
thing...all this support of Sanders and Trump proves beyond any doubt the
majority of THE PEOPLE have had it with their government. This support
has held up and is quite strong despite the fact that both parties (and
the media) shoved their establishment candidates down their voters
throats. Trump thrashed his Republican competition despite the fact that
the RNC openly tried to run him out of the race. Sanders support has
grown despite the DNC and the media doing all they can to make him look
like a joke. Sanders is going to continue to win states right into the
DNC convention.
2. The polls at this stage are valid. I don't care much about polls
but
what the polls show is that they are in line with the actual voting that
is taking place. The public truly dislikes the "establishment" right now
and nobody is more an establishment candidate than Hillary Clinton.
Nobody wants to pay attention to the polls because they don't like what
they are saying...but what you can take out of them is they tell us the
same thing the actual voting told us...people want to vote the
establishment out...on both sides of the aisle.
3. What has driven people to the voting booths this cycle has been
the
chance to VOTE AGAINST the establishment candidates. Why would this
change in the general election? Can anybody point to a reason why it
would? No, they can't. All of the excitement for voters has been the
anti-establishment candidates Sanders and Trump. This is not a good sign
for establishment Hillary.
4. Momentum. Right now, Trump has it and can build right through the
convention. His competition is gone. Hillary is still fighting off Bernie
and Bernie is going to defeat her in probably the majority of the states
left to vote. She is a weak candidate that will limp into the DNC
convention on a losing streak...with Bernie there challenging Democrats
to support him and his ideas. Bernie has been the fire and excitement for
Democrat voters this year, he has inspired them and brought them out to
the polls and continues to do so. If Clinton is the candidate all of that
fire goes out and many millions of voters will not turn up to vote in the
general. This works in Trump's favor...particularly in states like
Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania where he has strong support. Hillary is
not in the same position that Obama was where he had a growing wave of
support and enthusiasm behind him and the party was thrilled to unite
behind him. Quite the opposite here, Hillary disappoints voters and
splits the party and they do not want to unite behind her. The actual
voting proves this as Bernie is the one that has been gaining momentum
and will head into the convention on a winning streak.
5. Fear will be the Clinton campaign's primary motivator. They will
work
in conjunction with the media to build fear of a Donald Trump presidency.
They will attempt to portray him the same way Republicans did as a
conman, reckless, an egomaniac, a racist, a bigot, sexist, morally
bankrupt and a liar. This strategy failed miserably when Republicans
tried to sell it to supposed "values voters" and it likely will be an
even bigger bomb when Hillary tries it...because people already see her
as a reckless liar, egomaniac conwoman, that has used and abused voters
of all colors, and that says anything to anybody just to get elected. So,
her attacks on Trump are likely to fall pretty flat. She offers voters
establishment politics, corporate kowtowing, hawkish and dangerous
foreign policy, and perhaps some somewhat liberal Supreme Court judges.
Um, not exactly an attractive package and when you combine this with the
fact she is prone to making major blunders and is more weirdly secretive
and paranoid than Richard Nixon...well...I don't see anybody getting
excited about voting for her. I see that it is more likely that people
will be excited to vote against her or not vote at all. Fear is something
the American public is tired of, combine this with the fact they are
tired of the establishment and during the general election Trump could
suddenly be seen as a breath of fresh air to voters. He could actually be
seen as the positive candidate running on making the country great.
Ridiculous? Sure, but if he convinces Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
voters of this...look out.
6. She has struggled mightily against Sanders, who handled her with
kid
gloves and ran on issues rather than going at her weak spots and openly
eliminated her email issue from being part of the primary process.
Basically, she faced a cream puff who was nice to her because he did not
want to risk the Democrats losing the election. Sanders as mentioned
above will continue beating her in the remaining primaries. In Trump she
will face a candidate that will brutalize her and bludgeon her with every
weak spot she has...and there are a lot of them...which will force the
media to pay attention to and discuss these issues finally. It will be
ugly and she is already a candidate that the majority of the public does
not trust so it will not be a hard sell for Trump to build on that idea.
The Clintons are very good at playing dirty (hell, they portrayed Obama
in a turban when they ran against him in the primaries) but they have
never traded body blows with somebody like Trump. He'll have everybody
thinking of her as "Crooked Hillary" in no time...and it works in his
favor that the nickname is accurate.
7. Oh yeah, and there is only one candidate under investigation by
the
FBI. An investigation that is coming to a head at the same time the
conventions are about to take place. While everybody on the Democrat side
wants to downplay this...well...the director of the FBI is not.
These days lawyers prefer to settle cases so they never have to go in
front of a jury. A jury is a wild card and so you don't know what may
come out in a trial that sways them one way or another. Well, Trump
versus Clinton will go to a jury trial and so far all the voting
indicates that jury, THE PEOPLE, seems very unfavorable to establishment
politicians.
Clinton can cling to the idea that she built a lead in the popular
vote
but that came from wins in Southern states and where Bernie was an
unknown or thought to have been sent to us by the Kremlin...these are
places Hillary will lose in the general because they are Red States so in
the general election that "lead" she talks about is utter bullshit.
Anybody that understands the difference between primary voting and
general election voting knows this.
The truth is this election is likely to be a brutal slugfest and the
better puncher is Trump. If we do end up with President Trump I will
blame the media for giving him such a tremendous platform and the DNC for
the pure arrogance and stupidity of shoving a lousy and weak candidate
down our throats.
If you don't think it can happen...well...you are wrong. I lived
through
it right here in super liberal Massachusetts. We sent Scott Brown to the
Senate because the arrogant and stupid Democrats thought they could win
with anybody on their ticket and so ran a weak candidate in Martha
Coakley. Brown destroyed her in the debates and the Democrats enraged the
voters by being so tone deaf and arrogant so...result Brown goes to the
Senate. Trump versus Clinton stacks up the same way. You have an
electorate that is sick of being ignored, shoved around, and crapped on
and a weak establishment candidate that much of the base does not like
running against a guy that is obviously a bozo but whose message may
resonate more with voters.
–--
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
'The only way to avoid getting crushed by absurdity, is to humbly include the absurd in our calculations.'
