rosskolnikov
location: Far end of the Group W bench
listening to: The Tony Rice Unit
registered: 2005.05.24
posts: 1822
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That is true, but it may not be during a recession. The Mexican government's biggest problem (besides corruption) is poor planning. For example, they still have sizable oil reserves in the deeper gulf waters. But they have not developed the technology to get the oil. By law, they cannot form joint ventures less than 51% control with foreign entities who have already paid to develop such technology. As a result, they don't access the reserves while their Cantarell field quickly declines. The foreign firms smartly won't participate at less than 51% control because they know the bulk of their profits will disappear down a rabbit hole if they are the subservient client to Pemex. The Pemex people know this and realize that Mexico could make a lot more money with some strategic partnerships, and the resulting tax revenue could help further growth of other industries (diversification) in the Mexican economy. But leftist/protectionist politicians like Andres Lopez Obrador demagogue the issue by placing it as a sovereignty issue. This has made any votes on the issue descend into a populist mess that ignores basic fiscal reality. That reality is that Mexico needs to make (and invest) money from this resource now while it still holds value. After alternative energies begin to take root, Mexico's reserves will not hold the same value as they have today. As the Mexican middle class has expanded, many have realized this, and a vote passed this fall to allow for a limited opening of Pemex. Although some profits will leave with foreign companies, I'll bet a substantial amount that both tax revenues and employment opportunites will rise dramatically once they take this step. The next steps for the Mexican government:1) Get smarter about fighting drug traffickers2) Break up other monopolies through increased competition, especially the giant Carlos Slim empire (If you never hear from me again, you'll know he had someone trolling the internet for comments such as this.)
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rosskolnikov
(view)
That is true, but it may not be during a recession. The Mexican government's biggest problem (besides corruption) is poor planning. For example, they still have sizable oil reserves in the deeper gulf waters. But they have not developed the technology to get the oil. By law, they cannot form joint ventures less than 51% control with foreign entities who have already paid to develop such technology. As a result, they don't access the reserves while their Cantarell field quickly declines. The foreign firms smartly won't participate at less than 51% control because they know the bulk of their profits will disappear down a rabbit hole if they are the subservient client to Pemex. The Pemex people know this and realize that Mexico could make a lot more money with some strategic partnerships, and the resulting tax revenue could help further growth of other industries (diversification) in the Mexican economy. But leftist/protectionist politicians like Andres Lopez Obrador demagogue the issue by placing it as a sovereignty issue. This has made any votes on the issue descend into a populist mess that ignores basic fiscal reality. That reality is that Mexico needs to make (and invest) money from this resource now while it still holds value. After alternative energies begin to take root, Mexico's reserves will not hold the same value as they have today. As the Mexican middle class has expanded, many have realized this, and a vote passed this fall to allow for a limited opening of Pemex. Although some profits will leave with foreign companies, I'll bet a substantial amount that both tax revenues and employment opportunites will rise dramatically once they take this step. The next steps for the Mexican government:1) Get smarter about fighting drug traffickers2) Break up other monopolies through increased competition, especially the giant Carlos Slim empire (If you never hear from me again, you'll know he had someone trolling the internet for comments such as this.)
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