The gist of it that after losing the referendum last year (by a wider margin than was reported), he's now repackaging some of its proposals as laws. He can't touch term limits, but his other plans involve increasing the power of the federal government. To do this, he's creating new regional councils, which would be staffed by appointment. These councils would take on tasks currently reserved for state governments. (And obviously, they would be immune to the electorate).

The main target of this is the western state of Zulia. Zulia is Venezuelas most advanced oil-producing area, and it is the primary point of resistance to Chavez. It's governor is the only non-Chavista in current residence. As the governor (Manuel Rosales) and the Chavista mayor (Giancarlo DiMartino) have competed for influence and votes, the Zulianos have been the winners, with more development and infrastructure improvements than any other Venezuelan state.

The councils are not permitted under the current Venezuelan constitution, but Chavez knows that laws can be passed, and it is up to people to bring a case before the courts to determine legality. The problem with that is when Chavez had the constitution re-written nine years ago, the Supreme Court was expanded by (can't remember how many) seats. Effectively, this gave Chavez an appointed/loyal majority on the court.

(People should think about this application to the USA and what may happen if Justic Stephens should retire. It's as good a reason as any to vote Democrat this time around. Checks and balances are good.)

We'll see what happens. I've noticed internal support for Chavez waning, but since most of my visits are to the western states of Zulia, Trujillo, and Merida, I might not be seeing a statistically valid sample size.

It's worth noting that Presidents Morales (Bolivia) and Correa (Ecuador) are trying similar gambits with their constitutions. I'm sure both mean well, but both are positioned to radically increase the power of the federal executive branches. If we've learned nothing else these last eight years, we know that such cannot be a good thing.

Having said that, it's also clear to many South Americans that Brazil and Colombia and (to an extent) Chile have been moving forward economically at a faster pace than any of these new-Socialist states. While Latin America leans left these days, I think more people are looking toward wanting the Lula or Bachelet model of government rather than the Chavez/strongman style. The problem is that once you've put a strongman in power, it can be a road through hell to get him out.

Also, inflation has been over 30% in Venezuela this year, significantly higher than in the US even during the worst US recession since the late 70's. And I know first hand that Venezuela has been paying current accounts 2-3 months late. Why, I'm not quite sure.

Currently, Chavez's dallying with Russian planes is a bit of a red herring. I don't think that situation is likely to turn Venezuela into a Cuba-like client of Moscow. And today's Russia still isn't what it once was in terms of credibility and influence.