Well, that really happened when he switched to running as an independent but since he did that, I think he's gone down the road of trying to appeal to voters that have some unusual beliefs even more than before. I think that is a strategy more than a representation of his actual beliefs but in a way...well...that really makes his campaign bullshit and I think, sadly, he does know better. 

Actually, after he became an independent, the thing that really got me was someone asked him what news sources to trust and one of the ones he mentioned was The Epoch Times and I laughed out loud. At that moment it became quite evident he was screwing with people.

I think you have to understand the kind of campaign he is running. While Trump only tries to appeal to the hardcore MAGA loons, and Biden is running on "Come on this Trump guy is nuts!" (which is true), Kennedy is trying to capture votes from both sides so he makes appeals in both directions. That is what he sees as his only path to victory, so he won't shutdown a conspiracy theory because he thinks he can get that voter. It makes for what seems like a schizophrenic message but I think he thinks that works because the electorate has become schizophrenic in their beliefs. I don't think he is nuts, he has made the bet that this is how you have to appeal to the populace now. It is calculated. 

He's got me pretty nervous at the moment. He seems to be trending upward just when I thought he would start to trend downward. I still do not think an independent can win, so my thought is he is just going to play spoiler but if he continues to gain momentum he could be the determining factor in the election. 

The real problem is we do have a very conflicted electorate and I think there are a large number of voters that are ready to break off from the two main parties. Not sure it is enough to allow a win from a third party candidate but it could mean that a pretty big number of votes go to him and the larger that number, the more uncertain the outcome between Biden and Trump. Even if he captures 8-10% of the vote, which is very doable for him, he could throw the election to Trump in a swing state. This makes him, as I've said before, Trump's best hope. It's also why big money donors that want a Trump win would throw money at Kennedy, he is the only thing that can get Trump close to a win. 

What I think Bobby is banking on is he thinks he can split the vote to he, Biden, and Trump all getting around a third of the vote each. 

The question is, who is the RFK Jr. voter? Is it the anti-vaccine crowd? He splits that with Trump. Is it the January 6th crowd that thinks that thinks the people that attacked the Capitol were too harshly punished? I think Trump has that crowd mostly wrapped up. Is it the Biden is too old crowd? Maybe but probably most of that crowd thinks some of what Bobby says is nuts. He will pull some votes from minority groups, that will hurt Biden, he will pull some Democrats but probably not a lot unless his messaging changes. 

RFK is trying to find crossover between all the very diverse factions of voters. So, his general message is "I will listen to and look at anything voters bring up." whereas both Trump and Biden keep their focus limited. Trump strictly sticks to the insane, angry, and fear stoked MAGA crowd. Biden stays focused on day to day real world issues and dismisses things outside of that. 

Here's how I feel about it right now. Bobby is not going to make it to getting a third of the vote. That would be gigantic if he did. I think we have basically two groups of voters that are very entrenched with their candidates, Democrats for Biden and MAGA loons for Trump. Kennedy gets none of those voters. 

Then there are independent voters, really, RFK would need to pull most of these but I think it is more likely he gets maybe a third of them, if he is lucky he gets half of them. I think most independents will vote for Biden, he is the safest choice and so I think that wins in most cases.

So, I just do not see a path to where he gets anywhere enough voters to win but could he end up hitting a big number like getting 20% of the vote...yes, I think that could happen. I think we could have enough disgruntled voters that if he is on every state's ballot, they just vote for him because they don't want to vote for Trump or Biden. 

That would definitely put the outcome in the 6-8 states that will swing the election into doubt. It is the only way, I think, Trump would have any shot at beating Biden. And right now, at least as of today, we are staring at that as a possibility. So, this is why I think we have to keep an eye on what RFK is doing.