OK. Your sister hates trial lawyers. I hate corporations and their lobbyists. But if a corporate
lobbyist could figure out a
way to get us out of this coming mess without bloodshed and mass starvation I would campaign
like hell for him or her. Jerome a Paris, the author of the piece I'm linking to below, is a fascinating
fellow--an energy entrepreneur (he builds giant wind farms) and has been over the years an
absolutely prescient voice regarding the international markets. (He predicted $100bbl oil back
when oil was $42bbl, for instance.) Jim Kunstler has been screaming doom and gloom for a long
long time, and has made several rash predictions that were proven premature at best. But now
their voices join together like a gorgeous, demonic choir... (Their voices are echoed in the halls of a
very stable and conservative international fund management firm, where a friend of mine is a
young VP.) You might want to read their pieces this morning.
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2008/1/21/93248/5109
Here's Kunstler's piece. He doesn't provide permalinks, so I copied n pasted.
January 21, 2008
Fullbown Panic
Knees knocked last week from sea to shining sea as the shape-shifting monster of economic
reality cut a swathe of destruction through the markets and financial ranks. The exact nature of this
giant beast still remained largely concealed in a fog of accounting gambits, policy blusters, and
reporting dodges, but a few intrepid scouts who glimpsed the behemoth up close said it looked like
Godzilla with Herbert Hoover's face.
George W. Bush, tried to appease the beast by offering each American adult the dollar
equivalent of half a month's mortgage payment -- with the exhortation to drive forthwith to the
nearest WalMart and blow it on salad shooters and plasma TV's -- but Hooverzilla just laughed at
the offering and pounded the equity markets further into the dust of loss, while the "bank-like"
guardians of wealth lay in the drainage ditches bleeding from their ears and eyes.
My favorite moment was seeing Treasury Secretary Paulson and one of his fellow shaved-head
deputies at a press conference rostrum frantically trying to calm the news media rabble like a
couple of extraplanetary high priests from a Star Trek episode -- the batteries having run down in
their laser wands, and their incantations ("liquidity! liquidity!) veering into mystifying glossolalia.
I resort to such admitted extreme hyperbole because it may be the only language that an
infotainment-drunk society can still process in the face of an epochal calamity that will transform
the lush terms of everyday life as we've known it into something like a bleak surrealist landscape in
the manner of Tanguy. That crashing sound out there is the armature of confidence needed to
support an economy based on faith that borrowed money will be paid back. It's as simple as that.
(Doesn't seem so exciting now, does it?)
The United States is so broke, its people at every level from the Federal Reserve on down don't
know whether to shit or go blind. The homeowners cringing in the media rooms of their 5000-
square-foot personal family resorts don't know how long they can stay put microwaving pepperoni
hot pockets with the default clock ticking. The mortgage "servicers" don't know how they will
persuade interested parties like, say, the Illinois State Cafeteria Workers' Pension Fund (holder of X-
amount of mortgage-backed securities underwritten by, say, Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank) to
foreclose on properties scattered everywhere from Key West to Bainbridge Island -- or if there is
actually any legal mechanism known to man that would make it possible to "work out" the sliced-
and-diced collateral. The millions of maxed-out credit card holders and the issuers of their plastic
are stuck together paddling a leaky tub in a sea of troubles every bit as wide, deep, and polluted as
the one the mortgage junkies and their enablers are sinking in. The developers of malls, office
parks, and power centers are weeping into their filing cabinets as the harsh daylight of insolvency
stops the orgy of "consumption" and the retail tenants pack up their unsellable goodies for the
liquidators, and the rent checks stop arriving in the mail, and the notes on this mall and that mall
enter the eerie realm of "non-performance." And, of course, there are the genius wonder boyz and
Wall Street playerz whose algorithms and turpitudes underwrote the script of this horror show --
for all I know they'll end up laughing into sugary skull drinks on a beach in the Cayman Islands, or
doing Chinese fire drills in federal prison (or simply ass-fucked on the granite countertops of their
Tribecca aeries by mobs of angry, repossessed, swindled former American dreamers pouring into
Manhattan from the tract house dormitories of New Jersey and Long Island).
There's a lot to be concerned about out there. I don't mean to be too cute about it. But, as the
master once said, nothing is funnier than unhappiness.
A whole closet full of "other shoes" is now waiting to be dropped. Surely the biggest clodhoppers
in the closet belong to the hedge funds, representing trillions and trillions of dollar-denominated
"positions" which, however hallucinatory, had previously yielded enough real "money" year-by-year
to keep all the realtors and Humvee dealers in the Hamptons goose-stepping to Goldman Sachs's
drumbeat. These "positions" can't help now from moving into counterparty crisis territory,
especially as the bond insurers such as MBIA and Ambac go up in a vapor, and if that happens the
damage could be so colossal globally that Stephen Hawking might have to be brought in to run the
Federal Reserve.
This is going to be a rough week. Fastening your seat belts may not be enough for this ride.
Better superglue yourselves to the floorboards and pray for God's mercy.
B
Baerwald
(view)
OK. Your sister hates trial lawyers. I hate corporations and their lobbyists. But if a corporate
lobbyist could figure out a
way to get us out of this coming mess without bloodshed and mass starvation I would campaign
like hell for him or her. Jerome a Paris, the author of the piece I'm linking to below, is a fascinating
fellow--an energy entrepreneur (he builds giant wind farms) and has been over the years an
absolutely prescient voice regarding the international markets. (He predicted $100bbl oil back
when oil was $42bbl, for instance.) Jim Kunstler has been screaming doom and gloom for a long
long time, and has made several rash predictions that were proven premature at best. But now
their voices join together like a gorgeous, demonic choir... (Their voices are echoed in the halls of a
very stable and conservative international fund management firm, where a friend of mine is a
young VP.) You might want to read their pieces this morning.
http://www.eurotrib.com/story/2008/1/21/93248/5109
Here's Kunstler's piece. He doesn't provide permalinks, so I copied n pasted.
January 21, 2008
Fullbown Panic
Knees knocked last week from sea to shining sea as the shape-shifting monster of economic
reality cut a swathe of destruction through the markets and financial ranks. The exact nature of this
giant beast still remained largely concealed in a fog of accounting gambits, policy blusters, and
reporting dodges, but a few intrepid scouts who glimpsed the behemoth up close said it looked like
Godzilla with Herbert Hoover's face.
George W. Bush, tried to appease the beast by offering each American adult the dollar
equivalent of half a month's mortgage payment -- with the exhortation to drive forthwith to the
nearest WalMart and blow it on salad shooters and plasma TV's -- but Hooverzilla just laughed at
the offering and pounded the equity markets further into the dust of loss, while the "bank-like"
guardians of wealth lay in the drainage ditches bleeding from their ears and eyes.
My favorite moment was seeing Treasury Secretary Paulson and one of his fellow shaved-head
deputies at a press conference rostrum frantically trying to calm the news media rabble like a
couple of extraplanetary high priests from a Star Trek episode -- the batteries having run down in
their laser wands, and their incantations ("liquidity! liquidity!) veering into mystifying glossolalia.
I resort to such admitted extreme hyperbole because it may be the only language that an
infotainment-drunk society can still process in the face of an epochal calamity that will transform
the lush terms of everyday life as we've known it into something like a bleak surrealist landscape in
the manner of Tanguy. That crashing sound out there is the armature of confidence needed to
support an economy based on faith that borrowed money will be paid back. It's as simple as that.
(Doesn't seem so exciting now, does it?)
The United States is so broke, its people at every level from the Federal Reserve on down don't
know whether to shit or go blind. The homeowners cringing in the media rooms of their 5000-
square-foot personal family resorts don't know how long they can stay put microwaving pepperoni
hot pockets with the default clock ticking. The mortgage "servicers" don't know how they will
persuade interested parties like, say, the Illinois State Cafeteria Workers' Pension Fund (holder of X-
amount of mortgage-backed securities underwritten by, say, Merrill Lynch or Deutsche Bank) to
foreclose on properties scattered everywhere from Key West to Bainbridge Island -- or if there is
actually any legal mechanism known to man that would make it possible to "work out" the sliced-
and-diced collateral. The millions of maxed-out credit card holders and the issuers of their plastic
are stuck together paddling a leaky tub in a sea of troubles every bit as wide, deep, and polluted as
the one the mortgage junkies and their enablers are sinking in. The developers of malls, office
parks, and power centers are weeping into their filing cabinets as the harsh daylight of insolvency
stops the orgy of "consumption" and the retail tenants pack up their unsellable goodies for the
liquidators, and the rent checks stop arriving in the mail, and the notes on this mall and that mall
enter the eerie realm of "non-performance." And, of course, there are the genius wonder boyz and
Wall Street playerz whose algorithms and turpitudes underwrote the script of this horror show --
for all I know they'll end up laughing into sugary skull drinks on a beach in the Cayman Islands, or
doing Chinese fire drills in federal prison (or simply ass-fucked on the granite countertops of their
Tribecca aeries by mobs of angry, repossessed, swindled former American dreamers pouring into
Manhattan from the tract house dormitories of New Jersey and Long Island).
There's a lot to be concerned about out there. I don't mean to be too cute about it. But, as the
master once said, nothing is funnier than unhappiness.
A whole closet full of "other shoes" is now waiting to be dropped. Surely the biggest clodhoppers
in the closet belong to the hedge funds, representing trillions and trillions of dollar-denominated
"positions" which, however hallucinatory, had previously yielded enough real "money" year-by-year
to keep all the realtors and Humvee dealers in the Hamptons goose-stepping to Goldman Sachs's
drumbeat. These "positions" can't help now from moving into counterparty crisis territory,
especially as the bond insurers such as MBIA and Ambac go up in a vapor, and if that happens the
damage could be so colossal globally that Stephen Hawking might have to be brought in to run the
Federal Reserve.
This is going to be a rough week. Fastening your seat belts may not be enough for this ride.
Better superglue yourselves to the floorboards and pray for God's mercy.
