I think what people need to realize at this point is that a war with Iran would never be a conventional war. They can't fight a conventional war with us or Israel. So, it would be a war waged through terrorism. That's essentially the best weapon they have. We have nukes and massive bombs, they have terrorism. So, their war won't be a fight with our military, it would be one to create civilian casualties in Israel and the US. That would be their response, if one comes. Which of course we have to hope won't happen.
Trump made this call on his own. Nobody was with him on it. Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard were declared decorative by Trump and were not and likely will never be included in any discussions of what actions the US will take. Both were totally sidelined for this, which was probably good, Hegseth leaks everything and is a moron, and I don't actually think Trump speaks to Gabbard anyway, he has minimized her since giving her the DNI job, and outright said he does not care about anything she says. So, in all honesty, we don't have a Secretary of Defense nor a Director of National Intelligence. Fake jobs, Trump does not consult with them, takes no briefings from them, did not tell either of them what he was going to do in Iran.
Gabbard, thinking she was going to be fired (and Trump was apparently telling people he was considering firing both of them) flipped her position coming into the weekend from Iran did not and had no capability to build a nuke, to they were just about to have one because Trump said so. This pretty much was a demonstration to the world that she is useless, gutless, and is just going to say whatever Donald tells her to say. Hegseth never waivered from saying "I will do whatever Trump tells me to do." but Donald blamed the failure of his big military parade on Hegseth and had stopped talking to him. He did parade him out last night, along with Rubio wearing his usual "I am being held hostage, somebody help me!" face.
Apparently, Trump did send a message to Iran letting them know we were going to bomb their nuclear sites and that was all we would do. We were not going to participate in any attempt to do regime change there. Their leader, Khamenei, is 86, dying of cancer, and has not been seen in days. Not even by people in the government. Trump's gamble here is that he is safely punching down. He is bombing a country with an elderly, dying leader, Israel already killed their top 10 nuclear scientists (most using an undisclosed weapon that killed them while they slept under something called Project Narnia), and that does not have a military that can put up a fight against us. So, he believes he's got an easy target and he claimed victory as soon as he bombed them, and said he would kill a lot of people unless they now agreed to peace.
So, Iran could say "OK, we will abandon all plans." or the dying Khamenei could decide to go out in a blaze of glory and take some infidels with him. Last night, Iran said they now would be more determined than ever to get a nuke and that the US started this war, but they would finish it. Which, at least in that moment, did not sound like surrender.
The facts are this:
It is a three nation war. Israel attacked Iran, then pulled the US into it.
Nobody else backed Israel and the US.
Bibi won by maximizing his moment and getting the US to bomb Iran and get Trump to threaten to kill many Iranians on live TV.
Iran is not in a great spot. Their leader is on his way out. Their top ten nuclear scientists are dead. Their three nuclear sites bombed.
One standing issue that has not been resolved is, there was some ten cannisters of uranium missing. Nobody knows where it is. Could have been at one of those sites that got bombed but word is (and the Iranians claim) they moved it because they have known this was going to happen for a while.
Trump owns whatever happens next. This is now his war because he made the decision to do it and did not even consult his DNI or head of DOD never mind any allies or the UN or a single intelligence agency. So, whatever the blowback, or if a massive bombing campaign against Iran begins...it is all "Thank you, Donny."
Bibi and his people were popping the champagne last night.
Trump proved himself a liar once again and proved once again he knows nothing about negotiating or making a deal. The guy promised he would end ongoing wars, not start and involve the US in new ones, and that he would be a "deal maker" not a bomb dropper. Well, he has made no deals, started a massive trade war, entered a new war with Iran involving the US military, and done nothing to end the wars he said he would stop on day one. Oops.
