I'll go a 70% chance he is convicted, 30% it is a hung jury. 

If convicted, I'll go 80% chance he gets no jail time. 

If the verdict comes in fast, I think he is cooked. 

It looks like the prosecution did a good job presenting their case and the evidence is overwhelming Trump is guilty. By all accounts, unless you are watching the boobs at FOX News, the defense did a pretty lousy job and had no defense. Their whole case rests on saying Michael Cohen is a liar, and Trump had no idea what was going on. Funny part is, Michael Cohen is a liar, he was a paid professional liar for Trump, went to jail for lying for Trump, and admits he lied for Trump. 

Trump obviously knew and oversaw the whole plan, signed off on the plan, signed checks from a personal account to pay Cohen nearly half a million dollars, and Cohen would never have mortgaged his house for Trump without telling Trump first, because Donny would never pay him back. 

So, there is no doubt that Trump is guilty, the question is did Trump and his crew of bootlickers do enough jury intimidation to scare someone in the jury from convicting him.