So, yes, if there is a third party candidate on the ballot for 2024, this spells trouble because, in swing states, margins are typically thin, and you need to have that coalition of voters, Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all voting for you to pull out a win in most cases...but with a third option we get a coin toss. Who does that third option syphon the most votes from? The Democrat or the Republican? If that is the No Labels presidential candidate, Joe Manchin running with Huntsman, well that ticket stinks BUT it is going to cause the Democrat and Republican to lose votes in some razor thin races. That's a problem. Manchin is exactly the kind of guy that Lieberman would throw in with. Liberman is part of the wing of the party that is essentially the Republican wing of the Democratic party. Manchin is a Democrat that due to the state he is from, will throw in with the Republicans. Would Manchin betray his party and run as a third party candidate? I'm sure he would. Would he win? Absolutely not, but he can potentially do severe damage to Biden or Harris and cause them to lose races they may have otherwise won.
Yes, the mainstream media seems desperately to want a Biden vs Trump showdown. Why? Well, mainly it seems because it presents the best storyline for them...it becomes a life or death desperate race between two weak candidates where one weak candidate (Biden) has an advantage over the other weak candidate (Trump). Loyalists to each side would be glued to their sets watching that play out and everyone will be terrified of the outcome. That makes for great TV and has people tuned into the show. Ratings go up, baby!
I don't really have anything against Biden, I do think his foreign policy decisions on the Ukraine situation look pretty damn questionable, that seems to be a drawn out war designed to take out Putin. Sure, Putin put himself in that position when he attacked Ukraine, but rather than opening immediate negotiations with Putin, the Biden administration has seemed to let this thing linger it seems to cause Putin to go under. Which, if they know who is going to take over for Putin and they see a plan in place could be good, but if they have no idea and are letting Putin go down and have no idea who might then step in...well...that's a massive roll of the dice that is going to hand someone a shit ton of nuclear weapons. Not good at all. If the guy that takes over is a violent nut, and that's possible, the world becomes a lot more dangerous.
One thing RFK Jr. has going for him is the correct idea about how the Ukraine thing should have been handled and could be handled with an eye toward peace. I like Bobby's take on foreign policy and I think he would be far superior to Biden or any Republican in that area. He's not an option though so, does not matter.
So, the way it looks at the moment is we are stuck with the Biden vs Trump deal. That's shaky because both have rather large issues. Biden has the age thing, and while he seems mentally alright right now, he does look a bit doddering at times. Trump is a criminal and buried in legal issues and should not even be running. However, he likes that people give him money as a candidate and now his only hope to stay out of trouble, he seems to think, is to become president again. He won't back another Republican because his ego won't allow it.
If one or both of these guys go down, the race looks much different and the two parties would have very critical choices to make. The two primary back-ups up to now have appeared to be Kamala Harris and Ron DeSantis. Both have proven themselves to horrid candidates and due to them both being so bad, I don't know who would win that race. Probably a coin flip.
Harris is an awkward campaigner. Where Hillary Clinton was seen as stiff, Harris I think is even worse. Does not help that like Clinton, she is not well liked really by anybody. Actually, Hillary did have a fan base but Kamala does not have even that. DeSantis is an absolute horror show as a candidate, which it seems most Republicans have realized. He trying to show himself to be crazier and even more vile than Trump and that, as it does with Trump, narrows his voting base down to just the loons on the Right...and the loons on the Right, well, they mostly prefer Trump. I saw one recent poll where DeSantis is in a dead heat for second place with Chris Christie. DeSantis can't help himself from showing off he dislikes everybody including his own supporters and just is a giant A-hole.
So, what happens if Biden and or Trump stumble? Well, the Republicans are scrambling to find a guy to put in place, they are promoting the hell out of Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, and just drafting someone else to bring in because DeSantis is in freefall. Ramaswamy, is has not yet made it into double digits in any polling, his high being 8% of the vote, but hey, in some polls DeSantis has now dropped to 10%, which left him tied with Christie...who I think is only in the race to help the Republicans get rid of Trump. Christie being the only candidate that will speak the truth about the Donald. Tim Scott, their other favorite, can barely manage getting 3% in polling. It's a sad group. I have paid no attention to Ramaswamy but he is said to be the best "personality" the Republicans have outside of Trump and he is promising to abolish the FBI if he becomes president...which is pretty insane and would leave the country at risk to all manner of attacks and criminal activity. However, I guess there is a sizable contingent on the Right that does want to abolish law enforcement...while actually claiming that's what Democrats want to do.
Also, I mean is that what Republican voters actually believe will help this country? Doing away with the FBI? Seriously?
Alright, so with the Democrats, if Biden can't run, what do they have? Well, option one is Harris. If they do that, well, get ready for a really tight election and potential repeat of Clinton vs Trump from 2016. It would be a huge mistake...so, believe me when I tell you, it is the most likely thing the Democrats will do. Next option is Gavin Newsom steps in and that's a better option but he's really not a nationally known candidate and so he would need to show he can win that coalition of voters over. There is Bobby Kennedy Jr. but they have chosen a path with him to totally destroy him and eliminate him forever. Now they have him labelled an antisemite on top of all the other shit they dumped on him so they just really are going to make him go away. Too bad to, because he may have been the guy that could unite the country and promote an agenda of peace and cooperation on this planet...now he's a loon, child killer, a Jew hater, a maniac, disgusting, vile, anti-science, anti vax, and supposedly rejected by his own family. Well done!
I'll give you he speaks a bit too freely, but he is none of those things.
So, we sit in this strange moment. With a pretty heavy presidential election coming, where the Republican candidates are promising basically insane things that would destroy the country, the Democrats are running an 82 year old guy with an unpopular vice president behind him, and destroying the one candidate that has some OK poll numbers and decent nationwide recognition that seems to have had some across the board appeal, with just the potential of Gavin Newsom stepping in and that only happening if the Democrats do not back Harris if something happens to Biden.
You have to wonder, in this great big beautiful country, loaded with intelligent and forward-thinking people why does our presidential election look like this and 47% of the population appears to be saying they would vote a third party candidate if Biden and Trump are their choices?
