Dave Tahija
location: Butte, Montana, en route from San Francisco to Juneau
listening to: Train - Save me, San Francisco
registered: 1999.12.27
posts: 261
[view all posts]
[view all posts]
During and after the Florida fiasco, I was a member of a Yahoo
group that specialized in technical, mostly scientific, matters
and wasn't political at all. One of the members, a professional
statistician, made a very convincing case that any large
election that comes out with a margin of victory less than
about 1% is a tossup. There are a lot of uncertainties in even
the best run election due to voter errors, equipment/counting
errors and innocent mistakes on the part of election officials,
leading to a margin of error of at least 1%. Attempts to make
the margin of error smaller tend to make the process much
more cumbersome. His conclusion was that any very close
election could be decided by an honest. coin flip as well as by
anything else.Of course, the Florida election was decided in a less random
and, in my opinion, not at all honest manner.
D
Dave Tahija
(view)
During and after the Florida fiasco, I was a member of a Yahoo
group that specialized in technical, mostly scientific, matters
and wasn't political at all. One of the members, a professional
statistician, made a very convincing case that any large
election that comes out with a margin of victory less than
about 1% is a tossup. There are a lot of uncertainties in even
the best run election due to voter errors, equipment/counting
errors and innocent mistakes on the part of election officials,
leading to a margin of error of at least 1%. Attempts to make
the margin of error smaller tend to make the process much
more cumbersome. His conclusion was that any very close
election could be decided by an honest. coin flip as well as by
anything else.Of course, the Florida election was decided in a less random
and, in my opinion, not at all honest manner.
