The way I see it, the last election was settled by a coin flip (a dishohest coin but that's another matter). This time around I know several people who voted for Bush who will not vote for him again, although some will not vote for Kerry. I also know a number of people who either didn't vote or voted third party who are certainly going for Kerry. I don't know anyone who voted for Gore who is going to switch to Bush this time or even sit this one out.

While this is no formal national poll, from what I read and hear, it's a pretty pervasive pattern. Given that any shift from the last election pattern will settle the issue, it looks to me like Kerry wins decisively. The only question in my mind is whether the House and Senate elections will at all go along with the presidential trend.