I don't think many of Bush's supporters are going to be converted by anything. It's a hard thing to do, to announce that you were wrong about something you feel deepy about. Instead, the best strategy to get Bush voted out would be to sow the seeds of doubt in his supporters' minds, so they won't enthusiastically support the man and might even decide to go duck hunting the first week of November.

I like Dean, but the strongest reason I can see to support somebody else in the Democratic pack is the violent dislike he seems to provoke in the right-wingers. Whenever I happen to see Fox News, there always seems to be a piece either attacking him or gloating over his imminent fall. It reminds me of their relentless Clinton bashing, which maybe it's replaced. In any event, if he were the nominee, the Republicans might be able to mobilize their fellow travelers to get out and vote against him.

There is no doubt that the Democratic voters will be out in force come November: they hate Bush and will do anything they can to defeat him. Their best tactic to succeed in this is to keep the passions on the other side banked down, to let wavering Bush-doubters decide he's not worth their support. They won't ever oppose him.